Wolfe Research Sees Wynn Al Marjan Exceeding $1.66bn Annual Gaming Revenue

• Wolfe Research forecasts >$1.66bn annual gaming revenue for Wynn Al Marjan.
• Estimate exceeds previous consensus.
• Resort on track for 2027 opening with 1,542 keys and 98-berth marina.

• 2027 — Key year
• $1.66bn — Project value
• 12% — Notable rate

## What is Wolfe Research’s new forecast for Wynn Al Marjan Island’s gaming revenue? Equity research firm Wolfe Research has published a note projecting that Wynn Al Marjan Island, the UAE’s first integrated casino resort, could generate over $1.66 billion in annual gaming revenue at maturity (assumed FY2029), according to reports from SCCG Management and World Casino News. This exceeds the previous consensus estimate of $1.3-1.4 billion and would place the resort among the top 10 highest-grossing casino properties globally. The forecast assumes a 2027 opening, full ramp by year three, and a gaming tax rate of 12% on gross gaming revenue (GGR) as per the UAE’s federal gaming regulatory framework.

Wolfe’s model incorporates a Monte Carlo simulation of visitor volumes, average daily theoretical win per visitor, and table/slot mix. Key inputs include: 2.5 million annual visitors (60% international), 35% casino penetration rate, average theoretical win of $190 per gaming visitor, and a 60/40 slot-to-table ratio. The note highlights upside risk from premium mass and VIP segments, which are underpenetrated in the GCC compared to Macau or Singapore.

## What are the resort’s non-gaming revenue drivers? Beyond gaming, Wolfe estimates non-gaming revenue (rooms, F&B, retail, entertainment, marina) at $850 million annually at maturity, bringing total net revenue to ~$2.5 billion. The 98-berth superyacht marina (recently unveiled) targets the ultra-high-net-worth segment, with berth fees averaging $150,000/year. The resort’s 1,542 keys include 300 suites and villas, commanding ADR of $1,200+. F&B will feature 15+ outlets, including three Michelin-starred concepts. Retail comprises 80,000 sq ft of luxury boutiques. Entertainment includes a 3,000-seat theatre and a nightclub complex.

Construction remains on schedule: Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings recently stated that the Iran-Israel conflict in late 2024 cost only one day of construction, and the project is 62% complete as of September 2026. Total development cost is estimated at $4.2 billion.

## What are the implications for RAK’s gaming regulatory framework and investment case? The $1.66 billion GGR forecast implies ~$200 million in annual gaming tax revenue for the federal government, with a revenue-sharing agreement allocating a portion to RAK. This fiscal contribution strengthens the investment case for RAK’s infrastructure spend (airport, rail, utilities) supporting the resort. For investors, the forecast validates the GCC’s first-mover advantage in regulated gaming — a market Wolfe estimates could reach $5-7 billion GGR by 2030 if additional licences are awarded. However, risks include regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and execution risk on the non-gaming amenities that drive length of stay and total wallet share.